So what's the actual evidence that the Iranian elections were fraudulent?
The National Post reports a poll that put Ahmadinejad ahead by 2 to 1. There's a statistical analysis here which basically gives no answer. (It looks for evidence of made-up poll numbers and finds none; it finds deviations in favour of Ahmanidejad compared to a model based on 2005 election results, and on growth in turnout, in certain areas. That could be for a hundred reasons (think about trying to estimate a model of the recent Euro elections, based on turnout and 2005 results).
I can't stand Ahmadinejad and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the election was rigged, but where is the evidence?
"Benford's Law Anomalies in the 2009 Iranian Presidential Election" seems to provide evidence, although I haven't got beyond the abstract.
ReplyDeleteI read it. You buy it? It is at least evidence. OTOH it contradicts the other guy's evidence that I linked to... And it's by a physicist FFS. Sorry perhaps that sounds snobbish. I just want to be reassured that one couldn't find equally suspicious patterns in say the last US prez election...if one looked hard enough.
ReplyDeleteHaven't read the paper as it looked like it required more thinking than I'm willing to give at the moment. There's an op-ed by Beber and Scacco that I have read and seems to make sense, though.
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