Stealing the initiative

In 2001, four American political scientists published a small book called Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy. It was a specialist title, dealing mostly with direct democratic "citizen's initiatives" (a kind of referendum) in the individual US states.  But it is a useful guide for understanding UK politics since 2016.

Their basic claim, stated in the introduction, is: "government actors must choose to comply with an initiative if it is to affect policy. ... We find that full compliance with initiatives is the exception, not the rule." Indeed, "[i]f... a legislative majority and the governor are united in their opposition to an initiative, then full compliance is extraordinarily unlikely – even if citizen support was high." They back this claim up with 11 case studies of California citizen's initiatives.

Another insight: "to ensure greater compliance with one's winning initiative, simply write a measure that is clearer in its instructions about implementation and enforcement...." But this might be hard: "an initiative's policy consequences may be difficult to anticipate, requiring government actors to retain discretion...." And, vagueness may help you win the election, since a too specific policy might present an easy target for opponents.

The other solution initiative proponents might have is "sanctions". "[Proponents] may also be able to mobilize voters... to withhold electoral... support from uncooperative elected officials".

We'll see!